Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for WhiteBIT Coin
20 historical signal(s) detected for WhiteBIT Coin; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $40.4998 | $43.8584 | +8.29% | 108.29 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $42.3741 | $40.6859 | -3.98% | 103.98 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $53.9293 | $55.1219 | +2.21% | 106.28 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $52.3430 | $57.0967 | +9.08% | 115.93 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $57.8819 | $61.1003 | +5.56% | 122.38 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $52.6169 | $52.8160 | +0.38% | 122.84 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $50.8203 | $47.3491 | -6.83% | 114.45 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $48.7551 | $47.8759 | -1.80% | 112.38 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $53.3595 | $53.9131 | +1.04% | 113.55 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $55.4207 | $53.0976 | -4.19% | 108.79 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $51.2926 | $51.2311 | -0.12% | 108.66 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $51.8341 | $53.5169 | +3.25% | 112.19 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $52.2985 | $44.7994 | -14.34% | 96.10 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $71.7529 | $73.2295 | +2.06% | 98.08 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for WhiteBIT Coin · Read the full methodology