Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a New 30-Day High

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a new 30-day high, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Litecoin

8 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 8 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades8
Win rate25.0%
Average return / trade-3.30%
Compounded total return-24.30%
Max drawdown-26.12%
Buy & hold, same period-51.30%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-11-10 2025-11-17 $110.1760 $95.7838 -13.06% 86.94
2026-03-17 2026-03-24 $58.5464 $55.7546 -4.77% 82.79
2026-05-07 2026-05-14 $56.7380 $56.9791 +0.42% 83.14
2026-07-06 2026-07-13 $45.7614 $43.9799 -3.89% 79.91
2026-07-19 2026-07-26 $46.9830 $46.5037 -1.02% 79.09
2026-07-27 2026-08-03 $47.7965 $44.6443 -6.60% 73.88
2026-08-21 2026-08-28 $47.8016 $49.9235 +4.44% 77.15
2026-09-06 2026-09-13 $54.6877 $53.6558 -1.89% 75.70

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Litecoin ยท Read the full methodology