Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a New 30-Day High

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a new 30-day high, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Bitcoin Cash

7 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 6 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades6
Win rate0.0%
Average return / trade-5.04%
Compounded total return-27.13%
Max drawdown-27.13%
Buy & hold, same period-58.06%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-12-04 2025-12-11 $591.2305 $573.0033 -3.08% 96.92
2025-12-20 2025-12-27 $624.6620 $593.5910 -4.97% 92.10
2026-01-04 2026-01-11 $654.8411 $641.8532 -1.98% 90.27
2026-05-06 2026-05-13 $461.2695 $439.6200 -4.69% 86.03
2026-07-06 2026-07-13 $244.0184 $240.1393 -1.59% 84.67
2026-08-22 2026-08-29 $288.1096 $247.9810 -13.93% 72.87

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Bitcoin Cash ยท Read the full methodology