Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Negative Funding

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after negative funding, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Zcash

54 historical signal(s) detected for Zcash; 31 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (23 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades29
Win rate55.2%
Average return / trade+10.08%
Compounded total return+569.05%
Max drawdown-54.24%
Buy & hold, same period+2288.80%

Hypothetical growth of $100

2 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-18 2025-09-25 $51.3693 $58.7644 +14.40% 114.40
2025-09-25 2025-10-02 $58.7644 $120.1539 +104.47% 233.90
2025-10-03 2025-10-10 $131.2123 $213.6484 +62.83% 380.85
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $229.2593 $217.4053 -5.17% 361.16
2025-10-18 2025-10-25 $217.4053 $270.5618 +24.45% 449.47
2025-11-15 2025-11-22 $608.1992 $547.7121 -9.95% 404.77
2025-11-30 2025-12-07 $460.0247 $341.6951 -25.72% 300.65
2025-12-09 2025-12-16 $405.1287 $413.0815 +1.96% 306.55
2025-12-27 2026-01-03 $447.7749 $488.5545 +9.11% 334.47
2026-01-10 2026-01-17 $417.4310 $410.1888 -1.73% 328.67
2026-01-27 2026-02-03 $366.5614 $294.3372 -19.70% 263.91
2026-02-03 2026-02-10 $294.3372 $240.3756 -18.33% 215.53
2026-02-11 2026-02-18 $233.8415 $295.8398 +26.51% 272.67
2026-02-18 2026-02-25 $295.8398 $242.3240 -18.09% 223.35
2026-03-04 2026-03-11 $220.5759 $220.8046 +0.10% 223.58
2026-03-20 2026-03-27 $234.5005 $221.4807 -5.55% 211.16
2026-03-30 2026-04-06 $214.6445 $246.7538 +14.96% 242.75
2026-04-14 2026-04-21 $368.4303 $312.1316 -15.28% 205.66
2026-04-21 2026-04-28 $312.1316 $355.3007 +13.83% 234.10
2026-04-29 2026-05-06 $335.9292 $516.8631 +53.86% 360.19
2026-05-09 2026-05-16 $612.6839 $515.1261 -15.92% 302.84
2026-05-29 2026-06-05 $547.2576 $459.1723 -16.10% 254.09
2026-06-06 2026-06-13 $389.9925 $411.6969 +5.57% 268.23
2026-07-01 2026-07-08 $399.3200 $483.7924 +21.15% 324.98
2026-07-13 2026-07-20 $533.2997 $547.8285 +2.72% 333.83
2026-07-26 2026-08-02 $485.1998 $461.4651 -4.89% 317.50
2026-08-05 2026-08-12 $505.5242 $480.6650 -4.92% 301.89
2026-08-19 2026-08-26 $508.5420 $768.0146 +51.02% 455.92
2026-08-31 2026-09-07 $836.1985 $1227.1109 +46.75% 669.05

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

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