Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Negative Funding

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after negative funding, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Solana

51 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 29 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (22 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades28
Win rate32.1%
Average return / trade-4.11%
Compounded total return-73.07%
Max drawdown-75.34%
Buy & hold, same period-55.98%

Hypothetical growth of $100

1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-11 2025-09-18 $224.0523 $244.7149 +9.22% 109.22
2025-09-20 2025-09-27 $238.5627 $204.8154 -14.15% 93.77
2025-10-05 2025-10-12 $228.0095 $177.9843 -21.94% 73.20
2025-10-20 2025-10-27 $187.7920 $200.0216 +6.51% 77.97
2025-10-29 2025-11-05 $194.2987 $155.1981 -20.12% 62.28
2025-11-19 2025-11-26 $140.6209 $138.9326 -1.20% 61.53
2025-12-01 2025-12-08 $133.8264 $131.9598 -1.39% 60.67
2025-12-11 2025-12-18 $136.3652 $123.1722 -9.67% 54.80
2025-12-18 2025-12-25 $123.1722 $122.4602 -0.58% 54.48
2025-12-29 2026-01-05 $125.1503 $134.4317 +7.42% 58.52
2026-01-07 2026-01-14 $140.8297 $145.7386 +3.49% 60.56
2026-01-15 2026-01-22 $146.5108 $129.7262 -11.46% 53.63
2026-01-29 2026-02-05 $125.3650 $92.0569 -26.57% 39.38
2026-03-05 2026-03-12 $91.0730 $86.5582 -4.96% 37.43
2026-03-14 2026-03-21 $88.1355 $89.8810 +1.98% 38.17
2026-04-09 2026-04-16 $82.5286 $84.9603 +2.95% 39.29
2026-04-18 2026-04-25 $88.8300 $86.2186 -2.94% 38.14
2026-05-02 2026-05-09 $83.7452 $92.0052 +9.86% 41.90
2026-05-10 2026-05-17 $93.1424 $86.5169 -7.11% 38.92
2026-06-01 2026-06-08 $82.3376 $66.4248 -19.33% 31.40
2026-06-22 2026-06-29 $72.4226 $71.2725 -1.59% 30.90
2026-07-02 2026-07-09 $77.3615 $77.7889 +0.55% 31.07
2026-07-11 2026-07-18 $78.0688 $75.0020 -3.93% 29.85
2026-07-19 2026-07-26 $75.4811 $74.4771 -1.33% 29.45
2026-07-28 2026-08-04 $74.1431 $73.4886 -0.88% 29.19
2026-08-06 2026-08-13 $73.9856 $75.5588 +2.13% 29.81
2026-08-28 2026-09-04 $109.1773 $103.9605 -4.78% 28.39
2026-09-04 2026-09-11 $103.9605 $98.6313 -5.13% 26.93

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Solana ยท Read the full methodology