Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Enters Its Top 95th Percentile

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding enters its top 95th percentile, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Hyperliquid

6 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 4 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades4
Win rate25.0%
Average return / trade-5.15%
Compounded total return-23.50%
Max drawdown-35.30%
Buy & hold, same period+50.98%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-14 2025-09-21 $54.5110 $54.1378 -0.68% 99.32
2025-10-05 2025-10-12 $49.1518 $36.8987 -24.93% 74.56
2026-06-02 2026-06-09 $73.4982 $63.7809 -13.22% 64.70
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $69.6037 $82.2983 +18.24% 76.50

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Hyperliquid ยท Read the full methodology