Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After Funding Enters Its Bottom 5th Percentile
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after funding enters its bottom 5th percentile, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
26 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 21 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $2.3701 | $2.2959 | -3.13% | 96.87 |
| 2025-10-18 | 2025-10-25 | $2.2959 | $2.5083 | +9.25% | 105.83 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $2.3191 | $1.9994 | -13.78% | 91.24 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-12-07 | $2.2021 | $2.0316 | -7.74% | 84.18 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $2.0316 | $2.0230 | -0.42% | 83.83 |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-06 | $1.8486 | $2.3538 | +27.33% | 106.73 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-19 | $2.0772 | $1.9624 | -5.53% | 100.83 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $1.9624 | $1.8428 | -6.09% | 94.69 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $1.8428 | $1.5997 | -13.19% | 82.19 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $1.2133 | $1.3769 | +13.48% | 93.27 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $1.4173 | $1.4383 | +1.48% | 94.65 |
| 2026-02-22 | 2026-03-01 | $1.4501 | $1.3880 | -4.28% | 90.60 |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-13 | $1.4096 | $1.3989 | -0.76% | 89.91 |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-04-02 | $1.4232 | $1.3484 | -5.26% | 85.19 |
| 2026-04-02 | 2026-04-09 | $1.3484 | $1.3428 | -0.42% | 84.83 |
| 2026-04-12 | 2026-04-19 | $1.3550 | $1.4342 | +5.85% | 89.79 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-04 | $1.3006 | $1.1999 | -7.74% | 82.84 |
| 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-02 | $1.0728 | $1.0509 | -2.05% | 81.14 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $1.0651 | $1.0746 | +0.89% | 81.87 |
| 2026-08-15 | 2026-08-22 | $0.9986 | $1.4543 | +45.63% | 119.22 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.