Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After Funding Enters Its Bottom 5th Percentile
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after funding enters its bottom 5th percentile, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
32 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 24 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (8 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | $0.3896 | $0.3800 | -2.47% | 97.53 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-29 | $0.3800 | $0.3676 | -3.25% | 94.36 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $0.3199 | $0.3087 | -3.52% | 91.03 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-27 | $0.3179 | $0.3302 | +3.87% | 94.56 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $0.3181 | $0.2699 | -15.15% | 80.23 |
| 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-20 | $0.2774 | $0.2461 | -11.28% | 71.18 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-11-30 | $0.2300 | $0.2541 | +10.49% | 78.64 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-07 | $0.2105 | $0.2434 | +15.66% | 90.96 |
| 2026-01-29 | 2026-02-05 | $0.2103 | $0.1712 | -18.58% | 74.06 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $0.1649 | $0.1566 | -5.04% | 70.32 |
| 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-22 | $0.1744 | $0.1611 | -7.65% | 64.94 |
| 2026-02-22 | 2026-03-01 | $0.1611 | $0.1597 | -0.87% | 64.38 |
| 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-10 | $0.1556 | $0.1508 | -3.08% | 62.40 |
| 2026-04-02 | 2026-04-09 | $0.1693 | $0.1575 | -6.94% | 58.07 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-16 | $0.1575 | $0.1580 | +0.28% | 58.23 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-11 | $0.1579 | $0.1695 | +7.34% | 62.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | 2026-05-22 | $0.1621 | $0.1464 | -9.70% | 56.44 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-04 | $0.1636 | $0.2089 | +27.63% | 72.04 |
| 2026-06-07 | 2026-06-14 | $0.2124 | $0.1870 | -11.96% | 63.42 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-26 | $0.2344 | $0.1789 | -23.69% | 48.40 |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-07 | $0.1745 | $0.1999 | +14.56% | 55.45 |
| 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-30 | $0.1874 | $0.1718 | -8.33% | 50.83 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $0.1719 | $0.1612 | -6.22% | 47.67 |
| 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-25 | $0.1580 | $0.1936 | +22.51% | 58.40 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.