Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After Funding Enters Its Bottom 5th Percentile
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after funding enters its bottom 5th percentile, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Litecoin
34 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 24 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (10 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025-09-21 | $119.2801 | $113.9490 | -4.47% | 95.53 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-29 | $114.0255 | $106.8605 | -6.28% | 89.53 |
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $93.4343 | $91.6778 | -1.88% | 87.84 |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-04 | $99.3809 | $87.3668 | -12.09% | 77.23 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $87.2307 | $86.6029 | -0.72% | 76.67 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | $82.6758 | $81.3788 | -1.57% | 75.47 |
| 2025-12-24 | 2025-12-31 | $76.8863 | $78.7196 | +2.38% | 77.27 |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-22 | $76.6400 | $68.5615 | -10.54% | 69.12 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $68.5615 | $69.3873 | +1.20% | 69.95 |
| 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-12 | $58.8138 | $52.3702 | -10.96% | 62.29 |
| 2026-02-19 | 2026-02-26 | $53.3102 | $56.7460 | +6.44% | 66.30 |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-07 | $54.5804 | $53.8254 | -1.38% | 65.39 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $53.8254 | $55.2653 | +2.68% | 67.14 |
| 2026-03-15 | 2026-03-22 | $54.9541 | $54.3676 | -1.07% | 66.42 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $54.5462 | $52.3201 | -4.08% | 63.71 |
| 2026-04-11 | 2026-04-18 | $54.9634 | $56.4510 | +2.71% | 65.43 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2026-04-30 | $55.5319 | $55.3042 | -0.41% | 65.17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 2026-05-10 | $55.3640 | $57.9924 | +4.75% | 68.26 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $54.5867 | $52.7384 | -3.39% | 65.95 |
| 2026-05-31 | 2026-06-07 | $52.3972 | $41.3424 | -21.10% | 52.03 |
| 2026-06-07 | 2026-06-14 | $41.3424 | $44.3155 | +7.19% | 55.78 |
| 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-27 | $44.0165 | $41.8646 | -4.89% | 53.05 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $43.5222 | $47.3018 | +8.68% | 57.66 |
| 2026-08-05 | 2026-08-12 | $44.8127 | $45.4559 | +1.44% | 58.48 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Litecoin · Read the full methodology