Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After Funding Enters Its Bottom 5th Percentile
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after funding enters its bottom 5th percentile, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
22 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 16 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
2 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-10-02 | $4152.8526 | $4354.3788 | +4.85% | 104.85 |
| 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-17 | $4368.4196 | $3893.7560 | -10.87% | 93.46 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $3978.8120 | $3285.2318 | -17.43% | 77.17 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $2812.9354 | $2264.3454 | -19.50% | 62.12 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $1886.4504 | $1939.7957 | +2.83% | 63.87 |
| 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-19 | $2051.9341 | $2203.1349 | +7.37% | 68.58 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $2139.5142 | $2059.5891 | -3.74% | 66.02 |
| 2026-04-02 | 2026-04-09 | $2131.5393 | $2179.7916 | +2.26% | 67.51 |
| 2026-04-11 | 2026-04-18 | $2247.4186 | $2421.2906 | +7.74% | 72.74 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2026-04-30 | $2375.7145 | $2253.6200 | -5.14% | 69.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-12 | $2346.1713 | $2338.5945 | -0.32% | 68.78 |
| 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-12 | $1769.0317 | $1671.8690 | -5.49% | 65.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-19 | $1671.8690 | $1710.0791 | +2.29% | 66.48 |
| 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-02 | $1620.6434 | $1608.2544 | -0.76% | 65.98 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology