Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Rises to +0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding rises to +0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for TRON

59 historical signal(s) detected for TRON; 33 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (26 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades33
Win rate54.5%
Average return / trade-0.12%
Compounded total return-5.65%
Max drawdown-21.80%
Buy & hold, same period-2.25%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-11 2025-09-18 $0.3384 $0.3433 +1.45% 101.45
2025-09-19 2025-09-26 $0.3505 $0.3324 -5.18% 96.20
2025-09-27 2025-10-04 $0.3384 $0.3421 +1.09% 97.25
2025-10-06 2025-10-13 $0.3415 $0.3230 -5.41% 91.99
2025-10-19 2025-10-26 $0.3131 $0.2971 -5.11% 87.28
2025-10-30 2025-11-06 $0.2961 $0.2890 -2.39% 85.20
2025-11-08 2025-11-15 $0.2923 $0.2925 +0.06% 85.25
2025-11-16 2025-11-23 $0.2945 $0.2741 -6.94% 79.33
2025-11-24 2025-12-01 $0.2750 $0.2816 +2.39% 81.23
2025-12-02 2025-12-09 $0.2769 $0.2814 +1.61% 82.54
2025-12-11 2025-12-18 $0.2801 $0.2794 -0.26% 82.32
2025-12-20 2025-12-27 $0.2800 $0.2795 -0.17% 82.19
2025-12-28 2026-01-04 $0.2846 $0.2955 +3.85% 85.35
2026-01-07 2026-01-14 $0.2941 $0.3070 +4.41% 89.11
2026-01-22 2026-01-29 $0.2992 $0.2953 -1.32% 87.93
2026-02-13 2026-02-20 $0.2801 $0.2851 +1.77% 89.49
2026-02-20 2026-02-27 $0.2851 $0.2858 +0.25% 89.72
2026-03-04 2026-03-11 $0.2804 $0.2857 +1.89% 91.41
2026-03-11 2026-03-18 $0.2857 $0.3070 +7.46% 98.23
2026-03-21 2026-03-28 $0.3097 $0.3109 +0.38% 98.61
2026-04-18 2026-04-25 $0.3278 $0.3234 -1.36% 97.27
2026-05-03 2026-05-10 $0.3300 $0.3501 +6.10% 103.21
2026-05-12 2026-05-19 $0.3510 $0.3554 +1.27% 104.52
2026-05-21 2026-05-28 $0.3589 $0.3677 +2.44% 107.06
2026-06-01 2026-06-08 $0.3511 $0.3267 -6.95% 99.62
2026-06-25 2026-07-02 $0.3269 $0.3157 -3.42% 96.21
2026-07-04 2026-07-11 $0.3231 $0.3302 +2.20% 98.33
2026-07-11 2026-07-18 $0.3302 $0.3226 -2.32% 96.05
2026-07-24 2026-07-31 $0.3287 $0.3285 -0.07% 95.98
2026-08-01 2026-08-08 $0.3257 $0.3274 +0.52% 96.48
2026-08-12 2026-08-19 $0.3349 $0.3327 -0.67% 95.84
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $0.3343 $0.3361 +0.52% 96.34
2026-08-28 2026-09-04 $0.3377 $0.3308 -2.06% 94.35

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for TRON ยท Read the full methodology