Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Rises to +0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding rises to +0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Monero

4 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 4 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades4
Win rate25.0%
Average return / trade-7.21%
Compounded total return-27.60%
Max drawdown-27.60%
Buy & hold, same period-3.67%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-17 2025-09-24 $319.6589 $291.6501 -8.76% 91.24
2025-12-04 2025-12-11 $408.4500 $401.2871 -1.75% 89.64
2025-12-11 2025-12-18 $401.2871 $417.6611 +4.08% 93.30
2026-05-30 2026-06-06 $396.7936 $307.9241 -22.40% 72.40

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Monero ยท Read the full methodology