Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Rises to +0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding rises to +0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Litecoin

54 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 31 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (23 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades31
Win rate54.8%
Average return / trade-0.13%
Compounded total return-9.74%
Max drawdown-40.24%
Buy & hold, same period-52.38%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-12 2025-09-19 $115.9173 $118.2714 +2.03% 102.03
2025-09-24 2025-10-01 $106.1384 $106.8573 +0.68% 102.72
2025-10-07 2025-10-14 $118.3085 $99.5173 -15.88% 86.41
2025-10-22 2025-10-29 $92.6466 $96.6683 +4.34% 90.16
2025-10-29 2025-11-05 $96.6683 $85.3294 -11.73% 79.58
2025-11-08 2025-11-15 $102.4014 $97.6261 -4.66% 75.87
2025-11-20 2025-11-27 $92.7930 $86.8604 -6.39% 71.02
2025-12-03 2025-12-10 $82.8478 $86.0245 +3.83% 73.74
2025-12-10 2025-12-17 $86.0245 $79.0472 -8.11% 67.76
2025-12-19 2025-12-26 $74.2558 $75.6720 +1.91% 69.05
2025-12-27 2026-01-03 $76.8272 $81.8790 +6.58% 73.60
2026-01-06 2026-01-13 $83.5021 $75.9738 -9.02% 66.96
2026-01-13 2026-01-20 $75.9738 $70.7816 -6.83% 62.38
2026-01-20 2026-01-27 $70.7816 $69.6502 -1.60% 61.39
2026-02-25 2026-03-04 $51.1705 $54.8127 +7.12% 65.76
2026-03-05 2026-03-12 $56.7829 $54.8536 -3.40% 63.52
2026-03-12 2026-03-19 $54.8536 $56.0397 +2.16% 64.90
2026-03-30 2026-04-06 $53.3045 $54.3534 +1.97% 66.17
2026-04-06 2026-04-13 $54.3534 $53.4661 -1.63% 65.09
2026-04-14 2026-04-21 $54.6562 $55.0362 +0.70% 65.54
2026-04-24 2026-05-01 $56.2264 $55.1603 -1.90% 64.30
2026-05-04 2026-05-11 $55.2348 $60.3764 +9.31% 70.29
2026-05-25 2026-06-01 $52.7384 $52.0192 -1.36% 69.33
2026-07-02 2026-07-09 $42.6695 $43.6261 +2.24% 70.88
2026-07-09 2026-07-16 $43.6261 $45.1363 +3.46% 73.34
2026-07-17 2026-07-24 $44.9111 $46.9286 +4.49% 76.63
2026-07-24 2026-07-31 $46.9286 $45.5399 -2.96% 74.36
2026-08-03 2026-08-10 $44.6443 $45.4115 +1.72% 75.64
2026-08-10 2026-08-17 $45.4115 $44.1037 -2.88% 73.46
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $46.7607 $50.5035 +8.00% 79.34
2026-09-01 2026-09-08 $48.5260 $55.2023 +13.76% 90.26

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Litecoin ยท Read the full methodology