Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Rises to +0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding rises to +0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Dogecoin

57 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 32 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (25 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades32
Win rate40.6%
Average return / trade-1.04%
Compounded total return-40.80%
Max drawdown-58.45%
Buy & hold, same period-66.75%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-10 2025-09-17 $0.2408 $0.2699 +12.09% 112.09
2025-09-19 2025-09-26 $0.2789 $0.2238 -19.75% 89.95
2025-09-26 2025-10-03 $0.2238 $0.2618 +16.97% 105.21
2025-10-09 2025-10-16 $0.2556 $0.1964 -23.17% 80.83
2025-10-21 2025-10-28 $0.2001 $0.2004 +0.17% 80.97
2025-11-07 2025-11-14 $0.1615 $0.1637 +1.41% 82.11
2025-11-15 2025-11-22 $0.1577 $0.1402 -11.09% 73.01
2025-11-27 2025-12-04 $0.1548 $0.1518 -1.90% 71.62
2025-12-09 2025-12-16 $0.1426 $0.1297 -9.03% 65.15
2025-12-19 2025-12-26 $0.1220 $0.1236 +1.26% 65.97
2025-12-29 2026-01-05 $0.1238 $0.1499 +21.09% 79.88
2026-01-13 2026-01-20 $0.1368 $0.1293 -5.48% 75.51
2026-01-29 2026-02-05 $0.1255 $0.1041 -17.07% 62.62
2026-02-26 2026-03-05 $0.1013 $0.0994 -1.88% 61.44
2026-03-05 2026-03-12 $0.0994 $0.0930 -6.47% 57.47
2026-03-13 2026-03-20 $0.0952 $0.0943 -0.95% 56.92
2026-03-24 2026-03-31 $0.0946 $0.0907 -4.17% 54.55
2026-04-01 2026-04-08 $0.0922 $0.0953 +3.40% 56.41
2026-04-08 2026-04-15 $0.0953 $0.0931 -2.34% 55.09
2026-04-16 2026-04-23 $0.0950 $0.0957 +0.72% 55.48
2026-04-28 2026-05-05 $0.0990 $0.1101 +11.20% 61.70
2026-05-11 2026-05-18 $0.1125 $0.1089 -3.25% 59.70
2026-05-22 2026-05-29 $0.1055 $0.0995 -5.70% 56.29
2026-05-29 2026-06-05 $0.0995 $0.0885 -11.05% 50.08
2026-06-13 2026-06-20 $0.0860 $0.0834 -2.93% 48.61
2026-07-02 2026-07-09 $0.0721 $0.0724 +0.33% 48.77
2026-07-11 2026-07-18 $0.0741 $0.0725 -2.08% 47.75
2026-07-21 2026-07-28 $0.0721 $0.0703 -2.47% 46.57
2026-08-01 2026-08-08 $0.0695 $0.0696 +0.10% 46.62
2026-08-15 2026-08-22 $0.0700 $0.0915 +30.74% 60.95
2026-09-01 2026-09-08 $0.0828 $0.0905 +9.26% 66.59
2026-09-09 2026-09-16 $0.0900 $0.0801 -11.10% 59.20

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Dogecoin ยท Read the full methodology