Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Rises to +0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding rises to +0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for BNB

31 historical signal(s) detected for BNB; 19 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (12 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades19
Win rate78.9%
Average return / trade+3.40%
Compounded total return+83.33%
Max drawdown-14.59%
Buy & hold, same period-17.87%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-10 2025-09-17 $879.8894 $956.0360 +8.65% 108.65
2025-09-17 2025-09-24 $956.0360 $1016.9886 +6.38% 115.58
2025-09-25 2025-10-02 $1018.4593 $1027.5808 +0.90% 116.62
2025-10-03 2025-10-10 $1091.1638 $1255.6065 +15.07% 134.19
2025-11-24 2025-12-01 $842.7380 $875.5056 +3.89% 139.41
2025-12-28 2026-01-04 $844.9833 $878.1454 +3.92% 144.88
2026-01-10 2026-01-17 $896.3529 $937.2419 +4.56% 151.49
2026-04-08 2026-04-15 $621.1198 $614.5790 -1.05% 149.89
2026-04-16 2026-04-23 $623.2079 $637.8761 +2.35% 153.42
2026-05-04 2026-05-11 $617.0592 $663.4734 +7.52% 164.96
2026-05-12 2026-05-19 $670.3092 $643.0630 -4.06% 158.26
2026-05-30 2026-06-06 $642.4764 $571.9699 -10.97% 140.89
2026-07-02 2026-07-09 $549.9511 $568.1934 +3.32% 145.56
2026-07-09 2026-07-16 $568.1934 $580.0915 +2.09% 148.61
2026-07-21 2026-07-28 $570.6204 $565.7349 -0.86% 147.34
2026-07-30 2026-08-06 $571.3881 $593.3340 +3.84% 153.00
2026-08-09 2026-08-16 $600.3274 $607.2085 +1.15% 154.75
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $627.0534 $707.4796 +12.83% 174.60
2026-09-03 2026-09-10 $688.2301 $722.6593 +5.00% 183.33

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for BNB ยท Read the full methodology