Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Falls to -0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding falls to -0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Litecoin

11 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades9
Win rate55.6%
Average return / trade+0.22%
Compounded total return-1.33%
Max drawdown-16.60%
Buy & hold, same period-35.65%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-18 2025-10-25 $90.1182 $96.4339 +7.01% 107.01
2025-10-28 2025-11-04 $99.3809 $87.3668 -12.09% 94.07
2025-11-06 2025-11-13 $89.4461 $97.5405 +9.05% 102.58
2025-11-21 2025-11-28 $87.2307 $86.6029 -0.72% 101.85
2025-12-02 2025-12-09 $77.5498 $83.9031 +8.19% 110.19
2026-01-31 2026-02-07 $65.3773 $54.8135 -16.16% 92.39
2026-02-22 2026-03-01 $54.8049 $54.5128 -0.53% 91.89
2026-03-08 2026-03-15 $53.6117 $54.9541 +2.50% 94.19
2026-05-03 2026-05-10 $55.3640 $57.9924 +4.75% 98.67

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Litecoin ยท Read the full methodology