Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Falls to -0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding falls to -0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Dogecoin

22 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 14 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (8 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades14
Win rate42.9%
Average return / trade-2.99%
Compounded total return-36.92%
Max drawdown-41.43%
Buy & hold, same period-63.58%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $0.1937 $0.1848 -4.61% 95.39
2025-10-29 2025-11-05 $0.1936 $0.1625 -16.08% 80.06
2025-11-14 2025-11-21 $0.1637 $0.1491 -8.96% 72.88
2025-12-02 2025-12-09 $0.1355 $0.1426 +5.22% 76.69
2025-12-16 2025-12-23 $0.1297 $0.1324 +2.09% 78.29
2026-01-26 2026-02-02 $0.1198 $0.1048 -12.57% 68.45
2026-02-03 2026-02-10 $0.1082 $0.0963 -11.02% 60.90
2026-02-10 2026-02-17 $0.0963 $0.1015 +5.44% 64.21
2026-02-21 2026-02-28 $0.1008 $0.0942 -6.56% 60.00
2026-02-28 2026-03-07 $0.0942 $0.0919 -2.38% 58.57
2026-03-11 2026-03-18 $0.0948 $0.1008 +6.29% 62.26
2026-03-23 2026-03-30 $0.0912 $0.0904 -0.87% 61.71
2026-04-02 2026-04-09 $0.0923 $0.0925 +0.20% 61.84
2026-07-24 2026-07-31 $0.0692 $0.0706 +2.02% 63.08

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Dogecoin ยท Read the full methodology