Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After an All-Time High

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after an all-time high, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Monero

6 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 6 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades6
Win rate66.7%
Average return / trade-0.29%
Compounded total return-3.84%
Max drawdown-17.00%
Buy & hold, same period+107.47%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-12 2025-09-19 $270.6617 $299.2880 +10.58% 110.58
2025-10-03 2025-10-10 $333.3352 $341.9820 +2.59% 113.44
2025-10-27 2025-11-03 $347.1826 $347.1538 -0.01% 113.44
2025-12-01 2025-12-08 $436.9172 $362.6838 -16.99% 94.16
2025-12-20 2025-12-27 $441.1812 $444.7364 +0.81% 94.92
2026-01-12 2026-01-19 $554.3023 $561.5478 +1.31% 96.16

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Monero ยท Read the full methodology