Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After an All-Time High

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after an all-time high, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Bitcoin Cash

2 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 2 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades2
Win rate50.0%
Average return / trade+1.37%
Compounded total return+2.65%
Max drawdown-1.98%
Buy & hold, same period+7.55%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-12 2025-09-19 $596.7686 $624.9783 +4.73% 104.73
2026-01-04 2026-01-11 $654.8411 $641.8532 -1.98% 102.65

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Bitcoin Cash ยท Read the full methodology