Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After 5 Consecutive Red Days

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after 5 consecutive red days, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Zcash

4 historical signal(s) detected for Zcash; 4 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades4
Win rate75.0%
Average return / trade+7.51%
Compounded total return+31.53%
Max drawdown-6.79%
Buy & hold, same period+129.77%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-17 2025-10-24 $204.5334 $243.1103 +18.86% 118.86
2026-01-11 2026-01-18 $373.8885 $399.8364 +6.94% 127.11
2026-04-19 2026-04-26 $323.2368 $358.8737 +11.03% 141.12
2026-07-24 2026-07-31 $504.2249 $469.9643 -6.79% 131.53

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Zcash ยท Read the full methodology