Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Litecoin
17 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $105.7743 | $106.8529 | +1.02% | 101.02 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $96.8838 | $90.1182 | -6.98% | 93.97 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $93.2848 | $86.9684 | -6.77% | 87.60 |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-11-18 | $104.3072 | $91.1723 | -12.59% | 76.57 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $87.2307 | $86.6029 | -0.72% | 76.02 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $77.5498 | $83.9031 | +8.19% | 82.25 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $72.3009 | $68.2044 | -5.67% | 77.59 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $59.4259 | $55.1797 | -7.15% | 72.04 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $51.6321 | $53.2577 | +3.15% | 74.31 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $46.8740 | $42.9952 | -8.27% | 68.16 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-07-01 | $42.1222 | $41.8996 | -0.53% | 67.80 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Litecoin · Read the full methodology