Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 3x Volume Spike

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 3x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for LEO Token

14 historical signal(s) detected for LEO Token; 8 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades8
Win rate62.5%
Average return / trade+2.47%
Compounded total return+20.73%
Max drawdown-1.23%
Buy & hold, same period+1.32%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-11-08 2025-11-15 $9.1813 $9.2029 +0.23% 100.23
2025-12-18 2025-12-25 $7.2240 $8.1218 +12.43% 112.69
2026-01-17 2026-01-24 $8.8935 $8.8927 -0.01% 112.68
2026-02-02 2026-02-09 $8.3957 $8.3226 -0.87% 111.70
2026-02-22 2026-03-01 $8.3544 $8.8780 +6.27% 118.70
2026-05-19 2026-05-26 $10.1061 $9.9820 -1.23% 117.24
2026-06-06 2026-06-13 $9.5566 $9.6023 +0.48% 117.81
2026-08-13 2026-08-20 $9.0768 $9.3024 +2.49% 120.73

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for LEO Token ยท Read the full methodology