Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 3x Volume Spike

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 3x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Chainlink

4 historical signal(s) detected for Chainlink; 3 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades3
Win rate33.3%
Average return / trade-2.35%
Compounded total return-8.21%
Max drawdown-13.02%
Buy & hold, same period-37.28%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $17.3508 $16.6196 -4.21% 95.79
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $10.5474 $11.6202 +10.17% 105.53
2026-09-09 2026-09-16 $12.5100 $10.8818 -13.02% 91.79

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Chainlink ยท Read the full methodology