Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 3x Volume Spike

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 3x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Cardano

2 historical signal(s) detected for Cardano; 2 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades2
Win rate50.0%
Average return / trade-1.54%
Compounded total return-4.01%
Max drawdown-11.35%
Buy & hold, same period+29.65%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2026-06-06 2026-06-13 $0.1566 $0.1696 +8.28% 108.28
2026-08-22 2026-08-29 $0.2291 $0.2031 -11.35% 95.99

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Cardano ยท Read the full methodology