Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 30% 30-Day Correction

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 30% 30-day correction, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Hyperliquid

5 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 4 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades4
Win rate25.0%
Average return / trade+3.34%
Compounded total return+7.72%
Max drawdown-14.27%
Buy & hold, same period-37.14%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $38.1168 $35.4686 -6.95% 93.05
2025-10-22 2025-10-29 $35.3764 $47.7681 +35.03% 125.65
2025-12-10 2025-12-17 $27.9467 $26.7802 -4.17% 120.40
2025-12-17 2025-12-24 $26.7802 $23.9584 -10.54% 107.72

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Hyperliquid ยท Read the full methodology