Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 30% 30-Day Correction

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 30% 30-day correction, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Dogecoin

3 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 3 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades3
Win rate66.7%
Average return / trade+0.17%
Compounded total return-0.66%
Max drawdown-11.76%
Buy & hold, same period-51.24%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-17 2025-10-24 $0.1884 $0.1949 +3.48% 103.48
2025-11-04 2025-11-11 $0.1671 $0.1818 +8.80% 112.58
2026-02-05 2026-02-12 $0.1041 $0.0919 -11.76% 99.34

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Dogecoin ยท Read the full methodology