Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After 3 Consecutive Red Days
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after 3 consecutive red days, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
34 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 25 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (9 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-29 | $594.1888 | $556.4495 | -6.35% | 93.65 |
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $499.5693 | $468.5359 | -6.21% | 87.83 |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-11-08 | $535.4962 | $513.3722 | -4.13% | 84.20 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2025-12-23 | $535.9420 | $589.6432 | +10.02% | 92.64 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-30 | $589.6432 | $598.5278 | +1.51% | 94.04 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-07 | $594.8267 | $636.6984 | +7.04% | 100.65 |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-22 | $597.4670 | $584.2144 | -2.22% | 98.42 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $571.8263 | $517.2449 | -9.55% | 89.03 |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026-02-20 | $504.6694 | $559.5039 | +10.87% | 98.70 |
| 2026-02-25 | 2026-03-04 | $486.2023 | $448.5753 | -7.74% | 91.06 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $459.5624 | $465.2478 | +1.24% | 92.19 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $465.2478 | $445.3382 | -4.28% | 88.24 |
| 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-11 | $443.6803 | $443.9442 | +0.06% | 88.30 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | $436.3393 | $455.1661 | +4.31% | 92.11 |
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-21 | $434.0643 | $373.3493 | -13.99% | 79.22 |
| 2026-05-25 | 2026-06-01 | $347.2230 | $302.5864 | -12.86% | 69.04 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $268.7844 | $203.4155 | -24.32% | 52.25 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-18 | $194.4110 | $212.3372 | +9.22% | 57.07 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-26 | $199.5051 | $192.8499 | -3.34% | 55.16 |
| 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-16 | $235.2031 | $223.0598 | -5.16% | 52.31 |
| 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-25 | $219.7878 | $210.7167 | -4.13% | 50.16 |
| 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-01 | $210.7167 | $209.8023 | -0.43% | 49.94 |
| 2026-08-15 | 2026-08-22 | $204.6539 | $288.1096 | +40.78% | 70.30 |
| 2026-08-25 | 2026-09-01 | $270.8067 | $247.0126 | -8.79% | 64.12 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology