Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for WhiteBIT Coin

28 historical signal(s) detected for WhiteBIT Coin; 21 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (7 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades21
Win rate61.9%
Average return / trade+2.03%
Compounded total return+42.06%
Max drawdown-27.33%
Buy & hold, same period+83.42%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-02 2025-10-09 $43.2046 $44.4248 +2.82% 102.82
2025-10-13 2025-10-20 $43.3638 $41.4425 -4.43% 98.27
2025-11-01 2025-11-08 $47.0869 $54.0166 +14.72% 112.73
2025-11-08 2025-11-15 $54.0166 $52.3430 -3.10% 109.24
2025-11-19 2025-11-26 $61.3874 $58.0783 -5.39% 103.35
2025-12-03 2025-12-10 $61.5310 $61.7512 +0.36% 103.72
2026-01-18 2026-01-25 $56.9120 $49.8970 -12.33% 90.93
2026-01-26 2026-02-02 $51.4612 $48.5773 -5.60% 85.84
2026-02-03 2026-02-10 $51.0633 $52.8095 +3.42% 88.77
2026-02-17 2026-02-24 $51.8223 $47.8197 -7.72% 81.92
2026-02-26 2026-03-05 $50.0454 $51.6923 +3.29% 84.61
2026-03-05 2026-03-12 $51.6923 $55.4176 +7.21% 90.71
2026-03-17 2026-03-24 $56.8588 $54.1720 -4.73% 86.42
2026-03-24 2026-03-31 $54.1720 $51.3504 -5.21% 81.92
2026-04-08 2026-04-15 $53.6154 $54.4639 +1.58% 83.22
2026-05-01 2026-05-08 $57.1763 $58.9176 +3.05% 85.75
2026-06-08 2026-06-15 $44.8209 $53.1729 +18.63% 101.73
2026-07-01 2026-07-08 $53.9198 $56.2468 +4.32% 106.12
2026-07-15 2026-07-22 $56.6320 $57.6949 +1.88% 108.12
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $59.5563 $73.1488 +22.82% 132.79
2026-09-04 2026-09-11 $74.0742 $79.2440 +6.98% 142.06

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for WhiteBIT Coin ยท Read the full methodology