Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Chainlink
50 historical signal(s) detected for Chainlink; 29 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (21 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-19 | $24.4684 | $24.6587 | +0.78% | 100.78 |
| 2025-09-27 | 2025-10-04 | $21.0576 | $22.5297 | +6.99% | 107.82 |
| 2025-10-07 | 2025-10-14 | $23.4573 | $19.8786 | -15.26% | 91.37 |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-28 | $18.6583 | $18.2073 | -2.42% | 89.16 |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $15.8045 | $13.8180 | -12.57% | 77.96 |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-26 | $13.7755 | $13.0712 | -5.11% | 73.97 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $13.4923 | $14.4164 | +6.85% | 79.04 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-17 | $14.4164 | $12.9239 | -10.35% | 70.85 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $12.5263 | $12.1759 | -2.80% | 68.87 |
| 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-09 | $12.6253 | $13.2182 | +4.70% | 72.11 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $13.6424 | $14.2519 | +4.47% | 75.33 |
| 2026-01-25 | 2026-02-01 | $13.4446 | $10.3016 | -23.38% | 57.72 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $9.1344 | $9.7250 | +6.47% | 61.45 |
| 2026-02-17 | 2026-02-24 | $10.0301 | $9.1291 | -8.98% | 55.93 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $9.7334 | $9.8743 | +1.45% | 56.74 |
| 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-15 | $10.1586 | $10.2835 | +1.23% | 57.44 |
| 2026-03-15 | 2026-03-22 | $10.2835 | $10.0024 | -2.73% | 55.87 |
| 2026-03-22 | 2026-03-29 | $10.0024 | $8.4420 | -15.60% | 47.15 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $9.3260 | $9.0329 | -3.14% | 45.67 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2026-04-24 | $9.5965 | $9.3497 | -2.57% | 44.50 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-13 | $9.7659 | $10.2808 | +5.27% | 46.84 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $7.9085 | $8.1720 | +3.33% | 48.40 |
| 2026-07-03 | 2026-07-10 | $7.7381 | $7.7292 | -0.12% | 48.35 |
| 2026-07-11 | 2026-07-18 | $7.9623 | $8.2505 | +3.62% | 50.10 |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | $8.8170 | $8.3742 | -5.02% | 47.58 |
| 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | $8.3742 | $8.1814 | -2.30% | 46.49 |
| 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-19 | $8.7702 | $9.5291 | +8.65% | 50.51 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $10.5474 | $11.6202 | +10.17% | 55.65 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $11.8327 | $11.4667 | -3.09% | 53.92 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Chainlink · Read the full methodology