Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Zcash
73 historical signal(s) detected for Zcash; 38 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (35 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | $50.4976 | $51.9116 | +2.80% | 102.80 |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $48.5804 | $72.2868 | +48.80% | 152.96 |
| 2025-10-07 | 2025-10-14 | $157.1173 | $249.7604 | +58.96% | 243.16 |
| 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-23 | $229.8183 | $238.4702 | +3.76% | 252.31 |
| 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-30 | $238.4702 | $350.5504 | +47.00% | 370.90 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-11-16 | $597.2850 | $666.1985 | +11.54% | 413.69 |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-25 | $613.6129 | $519.0731 | -15.41% | 349.96 |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-02 | $519.0731 | $344.9288 | -33.55% | 232.55 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $341.6951 | $442.9134 | +29.62% | 301.44 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $404.3998 | $441.5361 | +9.18% | 329.12 |
| 2025-12-24 | 2025-12-31 | $417.3590 | $527.9268 | +26.49% | 416.31 |
| 2026-01-01 | 2026-01-08 | $511.1265 | $469.3023 | -8.18% | 382.24 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $469.3023 | $446.6909 | -4.82% | 363.82 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $413.3106 | $364.6081 | -11.78% | 320.95 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $328.0067 | $305.2245 | -6.95% | 298.66 |
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-10 | $294.3372 | $240.3756 | -18.33% | 243.91 |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026-02-20 | $232.9823 | $261.4991 | +12.24% | 273.76 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $232.0731 | $213.2087 | -8.13% | 251.51 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-09 | $213.2087 | $197.4597 | -7.39% | 232.93 |
| 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-19 | $212.6606 | $248.5112 | +16.86% | 272.20 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $248.5112 | $231.4329 | -6.87% | 253.49 |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-04-02 | $231.4329 | $251.9365 | +8.86% | 275.95 |
| 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-10 | $240.9367 | $367.6369 | +52.59% | 421.06 |
| 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-22 | $355.1249 | $316.9756 | -10.74% | 375.83 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2026-05-06 | $335.9292 | $516.8631 | +53.86% | 578.25 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-19 | $556.1287 | $563.1102 | +1.26% | 585.51 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $582.5787 | $529.3962 | -9.13% | 532.06 |
| 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-06 | $529.3962 | $389.9925 | -26.33% | 391.96 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-17 | $429.0663 | $504.7611 | +17.64% | 461.10 |
| 2026-06-18 | 2026-06-25 | $476.8604 | $415.8494 | -12.79% | 402.11 |
| 2026-06-28 | 2026-07-05 | $395.0296 | $463.0409 | +17.22% | 471.34 |
| 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-16 | $465.8796 | $570.1796 | +22.39% | 576.86 |
| 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-24 | $523.5638 | $504.2249 | -3.69% | 555.55 |
| 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-01 | $488.2650 | $457.2306 | -6.36% | 520.24 |
| 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-19 | $480.6650 | $508.5420 | +5.80% | 550.41 |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-09-02 | $768.0146 | $829.8595 | +8.05% | 594.74 |
| 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-15 | $1139.1361 | $1163.6923 | +2.16% | 607.56 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.