Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Hyperliquid
69 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 38 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (31 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-20 | $55.3287 | $56.1446 | +1.47% | 101.47 |
| 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-27 | $56.1446 | $44.8466 | -20.12% | 81.05 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $45.1514 | $39.5061 | -12.50% | 70.92 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-22 | $39.5061 | $35.3764 | -10.45% | 63.51 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $35.3764 | $47.7681 | +35.03% | 85.75 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $45.4380 | $38.5466 | -15.17% | 72.75 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $38.5466 | $38.5792 | +0.08% | 72.81 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $33.8616 | $34.8943 | +3.05% | 75.03 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | $31.9166 | $29.6300 | -7.16% | 69.65 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-15 | $29.6300 | $28.8767 | -2.54% | 67.88 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2025-12-23 | $27.5795 | $24.8523 | -9.89% | 61.17 |
| 2025-12-24 | 2025-12-31 | $23.9584 | $25.9433 | +8.28% | 66.24 |
| 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-09 | $24.1971 | $25.6713 | +6.09% | 70.27 |
| 2026-01-11 | 2026-01-18 | $24.1530 | $25.4133 | +5.22% | 73.94 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $24.3915 | $22.2775 | -8.67% | 67.53 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $22.2775 | $30.6290 | +37.49% | 92.85 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $33.0075 | $31.1509 | -5.62% | 87.63 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $30.7526 | $28.1139 | -8.58% | 80.11 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $28.1139 | $31.6166 | +12.46% | 90.09 |
| 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-11 | $31.3313 | $34.6903 | +10.72% | 99.75 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $39.3042 | $39.1758 | -0.33% | 99.42 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-06 | $37.8119 | $37.0084 | -2.13% | 97.31 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $40.8652 | $40.6048 | -0.64% | 96.69 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | $40.6048 | $42.5031 | +4.68% | 101.21 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2026-05-06 | $40.1598 | $43.7239 | +8.87% | 110.19 |
| 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-20 | $40.2389 | $48.0668 | +19.45% | 131.62 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $54.6829 | $64.4099 | +17.79% | 155.04 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $69.7334 | $57.7598 | -17.17% | 128.42 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-17 | $57.7598 | $73.5566 | +27.35% | 163.54 |
| 2026-06-18 | 2026-06-25 | $71.1115 | $63.8266 | -10.24% | 146.79 |
| 2026-06-28 | 2026-07-05 | $61.6218 | $69.8153 | +13.30% | 166.30 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $63.4394 | $62.4209 | -1.61% | 163.63 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-31 | $57.5093 | $55.8422 | -2.90% | 158.89 |
| 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-08 | $52.5238 | $54.0792 | +2.96% | 163.59 |
| 2026-08-08 | 2026-08-15 | $54.0792 | $56.4630 | +4.41% | 170.81 |
| 2026-08-25 | 2026-09-01 | $78.8814 | $84.1576 | +6.69% | 182.23 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-12 | $84.4271 | $79.4341 | -5.91% | 171.45 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Hyperliquid · Read the full methodology