Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after 3 consecutive negative funding intervals, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Dogecoin

39 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 23 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (16 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades23
Win rate34.8%
Average return / trade-1.80%
Compounded total return-38.69%
Max drawdown-41.00%
Buy & hold, same period-62.17%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-12 2025-10-19 $0.1853 $0.1896 +2.29% 102.29
2025-10-29 2025-11-05 $0.1936 $0.1625 -16.08% 85.84
2025-11-28 2025-12-05 $0.1527 $0.1475 -3.43% 82.89
2025-12-06 2025-12-13 $0.1395 $0.1369 -1.87% 81.34
2025-12-30 2026-01-06 $0.1227 $0.1518 +23.72% 100.63
2026-01-17 2026-01-24 $0.1384 $0.1254 -9.39% 91.18
2026-01-26 2026-02-02 $0.1198 $0.1048 -12.57% 79.72
2026-02-06 2026-02-13 $0.0887 $0.0939 +5.84% 84.37
2026-02-16 2026-02-23 $0.1029 $0.0938 -8.88% 76.88
2026-02-27 2026-03-06 $0.0977 $0.0940 -3.80% 73.96
2026-03-07 2026-03-14 $0.0919 $0.0961 +4.55% 77.33
2026-03-20 2026-03-27 $0.0943 $0.0925 -1.96% 75.82
2026-03-27 2026-04-03 $0.0925 $0.0907 -1.97% 74.32
2026-04-07 2026-04-14 $0.0907 $0.0941 +3.78% 77.13
2026-04-19 2026-04-26 $0.0948 $0.0980 +3.43% 79.77
2026-05-07 2026-05-14 $0.1125 $0.1126 +0.14% 79.88
2026-05-15 2026-05-22 $0.1153 $0.1055 -8.53% 73.07
2026-06-05 2026-06-12 $0.0885 $0.0860 -2.83% 71.00
2026-06-23 2026-06-30 $0.0824 $0.0733 -10.99% 63.20
2026-07-13 2026-07-20 $0.0727 $0.0724 -0.46% 62.91
2026-07-23 2026-07-30 $0.0730 $0.0701 -3.96% 60.42
2026-07-30 2026-08-06 $0.0701 $0.0700 -0.12% 60.35
2026-08-07 2026-08-14 $0.0690 $0.0701 +1.59% 61.31

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Dogecoin ยท Read the full methodology