Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 2x Volume Spike

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 2x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Solana

7 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 5 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades5
Win rate60.0%
Average return / trade+1.74%
Compounded total return+5.23%
Max drawdown-19.94%
Buy & hold, same period-43.59%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $188.7926 $182.1459 -3.52% 96.48
2026-02-01 2026-02-08 $105.4928 $87.5435 -17.01% 80.06
2026-06-06 2026-06-13 $63.6331 $66.7767 +4.94% 84.02
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $85.3331 $102.0489 +19.59% 100.48
2026-08-31 2026-09-07 $101.6829 $106.4901 +4.73% 105.23

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Solana ยท Read the full methodology