Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 2x Volume Spike

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 2x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Hyperliquid

10 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 8 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades8
Win rate50.0%
Average return / trade+5.22%
Compounded total return+38.03%
Max drawdown-22.71%
Buy & hold, same period+123.04%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-12 2025-10-19 $36.8987 $36.8731 -0.07% 99.93
2026-01-28 2026-02-04 $30.7818 $32.5227 +5.66% 105.58
2026-03-10 2026-03-17 $34.6599 $40.7693 +17.63% 124.19
2026-03-17 2026-03-24 $40.7693 $37.3734 -8.33% 113.85
2026-05-15 2026-05-22 $44.1587 $58.5893 +32.68% 151.05
2026-06-05 2026-06-12 $64.3655 $58.9072 -8.48% 138.24
2026-06-17 2026-06-24 $73.5566 $62.1166 -15.55% 116.74
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $69.6037 $82.2983 +18.24% 138.03

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Hyperliquid ยท Read the full methodology