Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 20% 30-Day Correction

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 20% 30-day correction, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Hyperliquid

10 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 8 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades8
Win rate75.0%
Average return / trade+4.94%
Compounded total return+43.83%
Max drawdown-7.67%
Buy & hold, same period+49.84%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $38.1168 $35.4686 -6.95% 93.05
2025-11-23 2025-11-30 $29.9865 $34.3910 +14.69% 106.72
2025-12-06 2025-12-13 $30.9837 $28.6085 -7.67% 98.54
2025-12-24 2025-12-31 $23.9584 $25.9433 +8.28% 106.70
2026-01-02 2026-01-09 $24.1971 $25.6713 +6.09% 113.20
2026-02-28 2026-03-07 $27.4017 $31.0734 +13.40% 128.37
2026-08-02 2026-08-09 $52.1563 $55.0998 +5.64% 135.62
2026-08-10 2026-08-17 $53.8541 $57.1155 +6.06% 143.83

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Hyperliquid ยท Read the full methodology