Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 20% 30-Day Correction

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 20% 30-day correction, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for BNB

6 historical signal(s) detected for BNB; 5 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades5
Win rate60.0%
Average return / trade+1.45%
Compounded total return+5.86%
Max drawdown-12.59%
Buy & hold, same period-38.89%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-11-06 2025-11-13 $958.1514 $953.3751 -0.50% 99.50
2025-11-22 2025-11-29 $830.0518 $887.4820 +6.92% 106.39
2025-12-02 2025-12-09 $826.1811 $897.2955 +8.61% 115.54
2026-02-05 2026-02-12 $696.0649 $608.4290 -12.59% 101.00
2026-06-30 2026-07-07 $558.6228 $585.5378 +4.82% 105.86

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for BNB ยท Read the full methodology