Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
12 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $2.7493 | $3.0389 | +10.53% | 110.53 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $2.3701 | $2.2959 | -3.13% | 107.08 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $2.3085 | $2.5258 | +9.41% | 117.16 |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-25 | $2.1613 | $2.2261 | +3.00% | 120.67 |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-26 | $1.8078 | $1.8322 | +1.34% | 122.29 |
| 2026-01-13 | 2026-01-20 | $2.0605 | $1.9907 | -3.39% | 118.15 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $1.8975 | $1.9256 | +1.48% | 119.90 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $1.6552 | $1.4284 | -13.70% | 103.47 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-17 | $1.4416 | $1.4990 | +3.99% | 107.59 |
| 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-12 | $1.1677 | $1.1411 | -2.27% | 105.15 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | $1.3579 | $1.4226 | +4.77% | 110.16 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.