Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
19 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 13 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
2 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $538.3299 | $594.5633 | +10.45% | 110.45 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $514.1344 | $470.1608 | -8.55% | 101.00 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-27 | $472.7427 | $558.9128 | +18.23% | 119.41 |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-12 | $480.8460 | $505.3135 | +5.09% | 125.49 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $508.0329 | $525.9742 | +3.53% | 129.92 |
| 2026-02-24 | 2026-03-03 | $498.4684 | $448.2235 | -10.08% | 116.82 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $405.7882 | $347.2230 | -14.43% | 99.96 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-04 | $334.8908 | $243.1709 | -27.39% | 72.58 |
| 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-30 | $197.2654 | $200.8131 | +1.80% | 73.89 |
| 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-25 | $219.7878 | $210.7167 | -4.13% | 70.84 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $247.9810 | $248.1215 | +0.06% | 70.88 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology