Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 10% One-Day Rise

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 10% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Sui

9 historical signal(s) detected for Sui; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades9
Win rate11.1%
Average return / trade-7.33%
Compounded total return-50.80%
Max drawdown-50.80%
Buy & hold, same period-73.53%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-13 2025-10-20 $2.8096 $2.5810 -8.14% 91.86
2025-11-25 2025-12-02 $1.5269 $1.3458 -11.86% 80.97
2025-12-03 2025-12-10 $1.6283 $1.6587 +1.87% 82.48
2026-01-06 2026-01-13 $1.9065 $1.7751 -6.89% 76.80
2026-02-07 2026-02-14 $1.0249 $0.9944 -2.98% 74.51
2026-02-26 2026-03-05 $0.9921 $0.9756 -1.66% 73.28
2026-04-08 2026-04-15 $0.9622 $0.9347 -2.86% 71.18
2026-05-11 2026-05-18 $1.3310 $1.0438 -21.58% 55.82
2026-08-22 2026-08-29 $0.8438 $0.7437 -11.86% 49.20

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Sui ยท Read the full methodology