Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 10% One-Day Rise

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 10% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Solana

4 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 4 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades4
Win rate50.0%
Average return / trade+3.83%
Compounded total return+14.33%
Max drawdown-7.54%
Buy & hold, same period-48.25%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-13 2025-10-20 $197.2147 $187.7920 -4.78% 95.22
2026-02-07 2026-02-14 $86.9776 $84.4579 -2.90% 92.46
2026-02-26 2026-03-05 $88.0792 $91.0730 +3.40% 95.61
2026-08-20 2026-08-27 $85.3331 $102.0489 +19.59% 114.33

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Solana ยท Read the full methodology