Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After a 1.5x Volume Spike

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after a 1.5x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Sui

26 historical signal(s) detected for Sui; 18 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (8 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades18
Win rate44.4%
Average return / trade+1.39%
Compounded total return+12.27%
Max drawdown-24.85%
Buy & hold, same period-72.39%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $2.6108 $2.4397 -6.55% 93.45
2025-10-18 2025-10-25 $2.4397 $2.5234 +3.43% 96.65
2025-11-05 2025-11-12 $1.9773 $2.0091 +1.60% 98.20
2025-11-15 2025-11-22 $1.7415 $1.3902 -20.17% 78.39
2025-11-22 2025-11-29 $1.3902 $1.5221 +9.48% 85.83
2025-12-04 2025-12-11 $1.6965 $1.6146 -4.83% 81.68
2026-02-07 2026-02-14 $1.0249 $0.9944 -2.98% 79.25
2026-04-18 2026-04-25 $0.9981 $0.9465 -5.18% 75.15
2026-05-05 2026-05-12 $0.9289 $1.2890 +38.76% 104.28
2026-05-16 2026-05-23 $1.0989 $1.0456 -4.85% 99.22
2026-06-06 2026-06-13 $0.7028 $0.7507 +6.81% 105.98
2026-06-16 2026-06-23 $0.7929 $0.7186 -9.38% 96.04
2026-06-23 2026-06-30 $0.7186 $0.7010 -2.44% 93.70
2026-06-30 2026-07-07 $0.7010 $0.7493 +6.89% 100.15
2026-07-25 2026-08-01 $0.7104 $0.6813 -4.10% 96.04
2026-08-19 2026-08-26 $0.6514 $0.7572 +16.24% 111.64
2026-08-31 2026-09-07 $0.7109 $0.8116 +14.15% 127.44
2026-09-08 2026-09-15 $0.8182 $0.7208 -11.91% 112.27

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Sui ยท Read the full methodology